Emerging markets up in 2016?

A new report by Transport Intelligence (Ti) – one of the world’s leading providers of research and analysis dedicated to the global logistics industry – has revealed that supply chain executives expect an uptick in growth in emerging markets in 2016.

After a year of turbulence, 61 percent of executives in the logistics industry, that were surveyed, say they are unclear on the direction of the global economy, or expect more volatility in 2016.

In spite of their wariness, roughly the same proportion (59,4 percent) say the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast of 4,7 percent growth in emerging markets is “about right.” Emerging markets grew an estimated 3,6 to 4,2 percent in 2015, down from 4,5 percent in 2014.

The results are part of a new survey of more than 1 100 global logistics and supply chain executives in the 2016 Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index.

Now in its seventh year, the Index offers a snapshot of sentiment in the logistics industry. It ranks the world’s 45 leading emerging markets based on their size, business conditions, infrastructure and other factors that make them attractive to logistics providers, freight forwarders, shipping lines, air cargo carriers and distributors.

For the first time, supply chain professionals surveyed see India – rather than China – as the emerging market with the most growth potential. However, China remains the leading emerging market by a large margin.

Among the countries at the top of the Index rankings are: UAE (2), India (3), Malaysia (4), Saudi Arabia (5), Brazil (6), Indonesia (7), Mexico (8), Russia (9) and Turkey (10).

Nigeria (17) and Egypt (22) climbed ten spots in the data-driven portion of the Index; the biggest gains by any country in seven years of rankings.

Consumer spending in Africa was also seen as a more important driver of growth than energy and minerals. The Index identified Nigeria, South Africa, Ghana and Kenya as Africa’s most promising markets.

In spite of recent growth and investment, sub-Saharan Africa remains a frontier market for most supply chain executives, yet only 21,2 percent said they have operations there.